No Going to War With Russia Over Ukraine

“Washington cannot lose its head on this matter. This isn’t Hitler marching into Poland in 1939. This is more akin to the Agadir Crisis in 1911. The Agadir Crisis was an outgrowth of German and French competition for greater influence in Morocco. The crisis was ultimately settled by slow negotiations which ratcheted down tensions. Of course, this event was one of those moments in history which set the proverbial stage for a far nastier event—the First World War—but the Agadir Crisis itself was small and ameliorated with shrewd diplomacy between the affected powers.”

The Multipolar World: Partnering with Russia to Stop Iran

“While it might harm Washington’s ego to treat Moscow as an equal partner in world affairs, the only way to mollify the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program – without a major war against Iran (and absent another silver bullet to use on Iran, like the Stuxnet cyber-attack) – is to grant Russia the respect Putin believes he and his country deserve. Thanks to the restrictive sanctions regime that President Trump has imposed on Russia, the United States has leverage. By dangling the prospect of a grand bargain between Moscow and Washington over key disagreements, the United States would likely be able to get Russia to work with it on ending the threat posed by Iran.”

Israel and the Sunni Arab States Cannot Resist Iran Alone

“Time is not on Trump’s side. Unfortunately, neither Israel nor the Sunni Arab states appear capable of hanging on for too long without international support.”

Caution Killed George H.W. Bush’s Presidency

“But, because George H.W. Bush was more concerned with playing petty politics based on short-term assumptions, rather than acting boldly and taking the licks for his decisions. Even his actions in Desert Storm were indecisive, which created many more problems for the United States in the long-run than there otherwise would have been. This is why George H.W. Bush’s presidency was an unmitigated failure (to say nothing of his domestic failures).”

Bomb Assad but Bring the Boys Home

“The president should strike back against Bashar al-Assad for having committed this brazen act of genocide. But, he should also go to Putin and Erdogan—cutting out the Iranians completely—and offer to reduce American presence in Syria in exchange for them forcing Assad (and Iran) to end the civil war peacefully.”

China’s Western Swing to the Eastern Mediterranean

“China’s ultimate goal is to link the capital-rich region of Northern Europe–specifically Germany–with its exports. But, the immediate concern is for China to solidify his vice-grip on the Mediterranean-Adriatic-Gulf trading zone, say analysts at the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for China-American Studies.”

Taking the Tumen River Region: China’s Plan

“The Tumen River Region is a critical factor in all Chinese designs for dealing with North Korea. And, now that North Korea is aiming to play all three great powers: the United States, China, and Russia off each other, expect Pyongyang to use the Tumen River Region in a bid to force both Beijing and Moscow to hew closer to its geopolitical desires.”

The New-Old World Order is Here (Part VII)

“Until we achieve that kind of innovation and prosperity, then, the United States will continue to be mired in history and hegemony and unipolarity will be a thing of the past. Thus, we will be forced to operate in a balance-of-power paradigm in which the Chinese are very near-to-parity with the United States and the Russians continue nipping at our proverbial heels (despite Russia being a country in severe decline). We will live in a world in which geopolitical risk to the United States is at an all-time high, since we are unable to overcome the major threats posed by rogue states and terrorists also. However, it will take some time to generate the kind of economic boom that is needed. And, it’s not an entirely bad thing to reassess some of our preconceived notions and support for institutions that bear little relevance to this new-old world order of hard geopolitics, strict national interests, and competing spheres of influence around the world.”

An America First National Security Agenda

“According to the snapshots of the pending NSS that have been released to the public thus far, the most important elements are the inclusion of space weaponization and technological threats. This has been something that few NSS memos have ever seriously addressed. Fact is, rival states are increasingly looking to find the strategic high ground of space as a place to threaten the United States and fundamentally debilitate America’s military supremacy. Whomsoever manages to place orbital weapons systems in space—using space as a means for power projection—will dominate the rest of the 21st century.”