It Doesn’t Matter If Iran is a Rational Actor

“”With the loss of Saudi Arabia as a viable partner in blocking the spread of Iranian power, the Trump Administration would be forced to revisit the oft-repeated notion that Iran is a rational actor. President Trump would have to renege on his campaign promise of ending the terrible Obama era Iran deal. He would have to reverse course and effectively reinstitute the Obama deal with Iran, in order to gain new leverage over Tehran. In other words, Trump would have to surrender the Middle East to Iran, selling out Israel in the process, just as Barack Obama did.”

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Turkey Benefits from the Khashoggi Disappearance

“Western media outlets must be suspicious of any information coming from Turkey about the Khashoggi disappearance. After all, Turkey (as well as Russia, Iran, and China) benefits from the sustained media campaign against Saudi Arabia (since it disconnects Riyadh from Washington). It also weakens the United States in the region.”

Holding Turkey Accountable

“Turkey has made its intentions clear: it is not a Western ally. Ankara does not seek to be a Western partner. If the West continues treating Turkey as though it were simply a wayward child rather than a rival, the West will continue to be undermined and embarrassed from within.”

China’s Western Swing to the Eastern Mediterranean

“China’s ultimate goal is to link the capital-rich region of Northern Europe–specifically Germany–with its exports. But, the immediate concern is for China to solidify his vice-grip on the Mediterranean-Adriatic-Gulf trading zone, say analysts at the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for China-American Studies.”

The Long Goodbye: No Kurdistan

“If the United States does not act quickly to ensure the creation of an independent, fully functional Kurdish state, then America’s geostrategic position will be permanently marred. Things will get worse, not better, for the United States and its allies, as Iran’s position is increased regionally, Israel’s position is fundamentally weakened; the Sunni Arab states begin building nuclear arsenals of their own, and Turkey continues manipulating events to help bring about its delusions of reconstituting the Ottoman Empire of old. Meanwhile, as this occurs, the Russians will replace the United States as the “offshore” balancer, and China’s path to global economic dominance will be cleared.”

Balancing the Equation with China by Arming Taiwan

“My recommendation would be to give Taiwan scores of cruise missiles (or to encourage the Taiwanese to build massive amounts of their own cruise missiles), coupled with the EA-18 Growlers (as well as the E-2D Hawkeyes that support the Growlers) that would be needed to suppress and overcome the Chinese S-400 threat. Taiwan has a handful of Hawkeyes and would need considerable amounts of Growlers to make their S-400 countermeasures fully effective. The United States must make selling Taiwan these upgraded systems a major priority in its relations with Taiwan.”

What is Russia Doing in the Central African Republic?

“Right now, the Russian “game” in Africa is small and limited to mostly diplomatic and economic overtures. Further, it’s no secret that Russia’s endeavors in Africa are tightly tethered to China’s own movements throughout the continent. In fact, Russia’s most recent attempts to align the CAR with its own foreign policy objectives comes at a time when the country had been partially abandoned to the Chinese. Moreover, both Chinese and Russian attempts to increase their standing and presence in Africa are complimentary. This is all about linking the vast mineral wealth of Africa–in the case of the Central African Republic, it is about connecting their oil fields–to the new Sahel-Saharan Silk Road that the Chinese have been building as a part of their overall One-Belt-One-Road initiative.”

How War with Iran Strengthens Russia

In this lecture, geopolitical analyst, Brandon J. Weichert, details how the increases in volatility in the global energy market (thanks to greater tensions with Iran) will disproportionately benefit the Russian Federation, which is almost entirely dependent on the price of fossil fuels being high, in order to make Russia strong.

The Turkish-Russian-Chinese-Iranian Condominium

“Face it, the EU is disintegrating and NATO no longer has the kind of cachet or relevance it once had. It is time for a new security paradigm on the continent, one that is led by the Europeans and conducted at the sub-regional level.

The West blew it with Turkey and now Turkey is going to make the West pay–at a time when the West can ill-afford such burdensome costs. “