Potential Chinese Intervention in Syria is About Access to the Mediterranean Sea

“Syria’s proximity to Europe is also beneficial because the Chinese are seeking to not only tie together as much of Eurasia as possible through trade, but they want to do so in a way that a) undermines the influence of the United States and b) reduces the military threat the United States poses to Chinese interests.”

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U.S. Natural Gas Will Not Supplant Russian Natural Gas Sales to Europe

“By insisting that Europe significantly decrease its reliance on cheap Russian natural gas in favor of expensive American energy sources, Washington is exacerbating the political, economic, and social instability already afflicting Europe today.”

Saudi Arabia’s Pipelines Will Not Offset Iran’s Closure of Oil Chokepoints

“Fact is, under present conditions, without some form of peaceful mitigation of tensions, it is likely that some form of conflict with Iran is at hand–this is especially true if the Iranians blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The United States, at that point, would have no point but to respond immediately. There are simply no viable alternatives out of transporting Mideast oil through the Strait of Hormuz.”

War with Iran is Coming

“Further, I would anticipate spikes in the global price of oil for the foreseeable future (by the way, this undoubtedly would make Moscow happy, since Russia depends on higher-than-average oil prices to sustain its economy and military modernization program). Should these increases continue for the foreseeable future—and if Iran continued both with its illicit nuclear weapons program and regional expansion—the United States will be forced to intervene military.”

Dancing with the Ones Who Brought You

“Again, I urge America’s leaders to repeal the Leahy Laws and fully embrace a more restrained, realistic foreign policy that empowers our local friends and allows our forces time to rest and recuperate after 18 years of endless—almost winless—warfare. After all, no matter how ugly they may be, it is always proper to dance with the ones who brought you to the party.”

Trump Is Right About the Iran Deal

“In all, the president has done what very few American leaders before him have been able to do: he has weighed the costs and benefits of the deal and determined that, whatever consequences may befall the world in the short term, the longer-term prospects are almost all in America’s favor. What happens next will be difficult, but ultimately, the difficult choice will have proven to be the correct one.”

The Cost of Doing Nothing About Venezuela

“The solution is to organize a massive regional response to the Venezuelan crisis. Countries like Colombia, Peru, and Brazil are all interested in mitigating Venezuela’s collapse. The Trump Administration must head a regional coalition that would aim to ameliorate the suffering of the Venezuelan people, while putting pressure on the regime in Caracas. Venezuela, more than Syria, is where a limited, American-led humanitarian intervention of regional powers should occur. The longer that the Trump Administration ignores the Venezuelan crisis, the more time America’s enemies have to harden their positions in our part of the world—which could directly threaten the United States.”

No, Germany is Not Our Friend

“All in all, President Trump was completely correct to call out Germany. At the same time that Angela Merkel “leads” the “free world” in a rhetorical crusade against Russia for “hacking” elections everywhere (read, giving that hooligan Donald Trump the Oval Office–which, by the way, Putin did not do that), her government and country sidles up even closer to Moscow. If they can do business with and have peaceful relations with Russia, why can’t we (and the rest of the world)? At the same time that Frau Merkel insists on bashing America’s “weak” response to Russia, it is the United States, Great Britain, and the Baltic states that disproportionately fund NATO. Even as Merkel insists upon greater, more open trade, her government engages in the exact same kind of anti-free trade actions that Trump espouses.”

What is Russia Doing in the Central African Republic?

“Right now, the Russian “game” in Africa is small and limited to mostly diplomatic and economic overtures. Further, it’s no secret that Russia’s endeavors in Africa are tightly tethered to China’s own movements throughout the continent. In fact, Russia’s most recent attempts to align the CAR with its own foreign policy objectives comes at a time when the country had been partially abandoned to the Chinese. Moreover, both Chinese and Russian attempts to increase their standing and presence in Africa are complimentary. This is all about linking the vast mineral wealth of Africa–in the case of the Central African Republic, it is about connecting their oil fields–to the new Sahel-Saharan Silk Road that the Chinese have been building as a part of their overall One-Belt-One-Road initiative.”