Trump is playing a high-risk-high-reward game of geostrategic chicken with Iran. If we wins, he’ll get a real deal with Iran. If not, it’s war.
My articles on the “Little Cold War” with Iran were cited for Bill McLoughlin’s column on The Daily Express. Read on for more insights into our current situation with Iran.
The key here is for President Trump to strike a strategic balance in the Middle East: the United States cannot ignore Iran’s threat to the region. Balancing with regional powers, like Israel and Saudi Arabia, against Iran in order to contain its threat is good. But, unilaterally (and unexpectedly) slapping all oil sanctions back on Iran in a push for greater levels of hostility, as the White House did recently, creates uncertainty and instability in world energy markets. The more instability that the United States creates in the world energy market through its aggressive actions against Iran, the more likely it is that Russia will benefit.
“By insisting that Europe significantly decrease its reliance on cheap Russian natural gas in favor of expensive American energy sources, Washington is exacerbating the political, economic, and social instability already afflicting Europe today.”
“Nationalism, energy politics, and Russia are all fusing together. The politics of Europe (and the West) have changed forever since 2016. No matter how hard the global elite may wish it to be, things will never return to the way they previously were.”
“China’s ultimate goal is to link the capital-rich region of Northern Europe–specifically Germany–with its exports. But, the immediate concern is for China to solidify his vice-grip on the Mediterranean-Adriatic-Gulf trading zone, say analysts at the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for China-American Studies.”
“All in all, President Trump was completely correct to call out Germany. At the same time that Angela Merkel “leads” the “free world” in a rhetorical crusade against Russia for “hacking” elections everywhere (read, giving that hooligan Donald Trump the Oval Office–which, by the way, Putin did not do that), her government and country sidles up even closer to Moscow. If they can do business with and have peaceful relations with Russia, why can’t we (and the rest of the world)? At the same time that Frau Merkel insists on bashing America’s “weak” response to Russia, it is the United States, Great Britain, and the Baltic states that disproportionately fund NATO. Even as Merkel insists upon greater, more open trade, her government engages in the exact same kind of anti-free trade actions that Trump espouses.”
“However, much like how the British and French Empires of old managed to keep relative peace and prosperity between their two countries, the United States and Russia must learn to balance each other peacefully–and work together more often and more amicably.”
“The Islamic Republic of Iran wants nuclear weapons to solidify its growing regional hegemony in the Middle East. Such an event will destabilize the already precarious regional order. The Trump Administration is committed to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear arms at all costs–even potentially risking war with the Islamic Republic. If conflict with Iran were to erupt, Iran’s long-time strategic partner, the Russian Federation, would disproportionately benefit.”
Don’t worry about the new Russo-Saudi alliance. It actually might be a net positive for the United States in the long-run.