The Turkish-Russian-Chinese-Iranian Condominium

“Face it, the EU is disintegrating and NATO no longer has the kind of cachet or relevance it once had. It is time for a new security paradigm on the continent, one that is led by the Europeans and conducted at the sub-regional level.

The West blew it with Turkey and now Turkey is going to make the West pay–at a time when the West can ill-afford such burdensome costs. “

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Coups, Mobs, and Charisma: a Pattern in the Turkish Political Culture

“The prospect of a future coup remains unlikely for as long as Erdogan remains in office. Barring a democratic loss in 2019, it would be reasonable to say that Erdogan has become a de facto Sultan who survived an onslaught of his former Janissaries.”

What’s Going On? A New Balance of Power in the Mideast

A 15-minute analysis of how the Trump Administration, along with the Sunni Arab states and Israel is attempting to restore a balance of power in the Mideast aimed at 1) containing Iran, 2) countering Islamic extremism, 3) ensuring the flow of oil, and 4) protecting Israel.

Erdogan’s New Empire – Lecture

In my recent lecture for the Koscuzsko Chair Intermarium Series at the Institute of World Politics, I talk about Turkey’s future under President Recep Erdogan and its implications for American foreign policy and the Middle East.

The Great Pipeline War: Syrian Settlement Forthcoming

Underlying the Syrian Civil War has been a competition to build a billion-dollar pipeline through Syria to Europe. Russia has ensured that the Iranian pipeline will win out, thereby harming U.S. interests and empowering Russia’s influence not only in Syria, but more importantly, in Europe, which is overwhelmingly dependent on Russia for its energy needs.