“”With the loss of Saudi Arabia as a viable partner in blocking the spread of Iranian power, the Trump Administration would be forced to revisit the oft-repeated notion that Iran is a rational actor. President Trump would have to renege on his campaign promise of ending the terrible Obama era Iran deal. He would have to reverse course and effectively reinstitute the Obama deal with Iran, in order to gain new leverage over Tehran. In other words, Trump would have to surrender the Middle East to Iran, selling out Israel in the process, just as Barack Obama did.”
“Western media outlets must be suspicious of any information coming from Turkey about the Khashoggi disappearance. After all, Turkey (as well as Russia, Iran, and China) benefits from the sustained media campaign against Saudi Arabia (since it disconnects Riyadh from Washington). It also weakens the United States in the region.”
“Turkey has made its intentions clear: it is not a Western ally. Ankara does not seek to be a Western partner. If the West continues treating Turkey as though it were simply a wayward child rather than a rival, the West will continue to be undermined and embarrassed from within.”
“If the United States does not act quickly to ensure the creation of an independent, fully functional Kurdish state, then America’s geostrategic position will be permanently marred. Things will get worse, not better, for the United States and its allies, as Iran’s position is increased regionally, Israel’s position is fundamentally weakened; the Sunni Arab states begin building nuclear arsenals of their own, and Turkey continues manipulating events to help bring about its delusions of reconstituting the Ottoman Empire of old. Meanwhile, as this occurs, the Russians will replace the United States as the “offshore” balancer, and China’s path to global economic dominance will be cleared.”
“At a time when Saudi Arabia in particular is seeking to create a grand regional alliance to counter the rising Iranian hegemony, taking an open-handed approach to the refugee crisis being kicked up by Saudi Arabia and Iran’s regional proxy wars is one, sure way to win a major soft power victory in that ongoing struggle. It should also be America’s price of admission for dealing with this alliance: if the Sunni Arab states want American backing for this endeavor against Iran, these states must accept the lion’s share of Muslims fleeing the region’s various civil conflicts.”
“Turkey isn’t an ally; it’s a strategic competitor. President Trump has praised Erdogan as “a friend.” But the administration would do well to acknowledge reality before America’s strategic position is hopelessly undermined in Europe and the Middle East.”
“Failure to recognize Kurdistan is not only an abdication of moral leadership, it is a geostrategic error for the United States. Without Kurdistan as a buffer state between Iran’s expansion into the Levant, as well as a check against Turkish and Russian consolidation of the region’s energy sources, we will permanently lose the region to our adversaries. Backing the Kurds to the fullest is in America’s best interest.”
“Face it, the EU is disintegrating and NATO no longer has the kind of cachet or relevance it once had. It is time for a new security paradigm on the continent, one that is led by the Europeans and conducted at the sub-regional level.
The West blew it with Turkey and now Turkey is going to make the West pay–at a time when the West can ill-afford such burdensome costs. “
“The prospect of a future coup remains unlikely for as long as Erdogan remains in office. Barring a democratic loss in 2019, it would be reasonable to say that Erdogan has become a de facto Sultan who survived an onslaught of his former Janissaries.”
A 15-minute analysis of how the Trump Administration, along with the Sunni Arab states and Israel is attempting to restore a balance of power in the Mideast aimed at 1) containing Iran, 2) countering Islamic extremism, 3) ensuring the flow of oil, and 4) protecting Israel.