“If the United States does not act quickly to ensure the creation of an independent, fully functional Kurdish state, then America’s geostrategic position will be permanently marred. Things will get worse, not better, for the United States and its allies, as Iran’s position is increased regionally, Israel’s position is fundamentally weakened; the Sunni Arab states begin building nuclear arsenals of their own, and Turkey continues manipulating events to help bring about its delusions of reconstituting the Ottoman Empire of old. Meanwhile, as this occurs, the Russians will replace the United States as the “offshore” balancer, and China’s path to global economic dominance will be cleared.”
“At a time when Saudi Arabia in particular is seeking to create a grand regional alliance to counter the rising Iranian hegemony, taking an open-handed approach to the refugee crisis being kicked up by Saudi Arabia and Iran’s regional proxy wars is one, sure way to win a major soft power victory in that ongoing struggle. It should also be America’s price of admission for dealing with this alliance: if the Sunni Arab states want American backing for this endeavor against Iran, these states must accept the lion’s share of Muslims fleeing the region’s various civil conflicts.”
“Turkey isn’t an ally; it’s a strategic competitor. President Trump has praised Erdogan as “a friend.” But the administration would do well to acknowledge reality before America’s strategic position is hopelessly undermined in Europe and the Middle East.”
“Failure to recognize Kurdistan is not only an abdication of moral leadership, it is a geostrategic error for the United States. Without Kurdistan as a buffer state between Iran’s expansion into the Levant, as well as a check against Turkish and Russian consolidation of the region’s energy sources, we will permanently lose the region to our adversaries. Backing the Kurds to the fullest is in America’s best interest.”
“Face it, the EU is disintegrating and NATO no longer has the kind of cachet or relevance it once had. It is time for a new security paradigm on the continent, one that is led by the Europeans and conducted at the sub-regional level.
The West blew it with Turkey and now Turkey is going to make the West pay–at a time when the West can ill-afford such burdensome costs. “
“The prospect of a future coup remains unlikely for as long as Erdogan remains in office. Barring a democratic loss in 2019, it would be reasonable to say that Erdogan has become a de facto Sultan who survived an onslaught of his former Janissaries.”
A 15-minute analysis of how the Trump Administration, along with the Sunni Arab states and Israel is attempting to restore a balance of power in the Mideast aimed at 1) containing Iran, 2) countering Islamic extremism, 3) ensuring the flow of oil, and 4) protecting Israel.
In my recent lecture for the Koscuzsko Chair Intermarium Series at the Institute of World Politics, I talk about Turkey’s future under President Recep Erdogan and its implications for American foreign policy and the Middle East.
The defeat of the Islamic State will create several knock-on effects in the Middle East. Namely, the Kurds will likely renew calls for their independence. The U.S. should support these claims.
Turkish President Recep Erdogan is disinterested in fighting ISIS, so long as it means supporting the Kurds. The Trump Administration should act accordingly.