It Doesn’t Matter If Iran is a Rational Actor

“”With the loss of Saudi Arabia as a viable partner in blocking the spread of Iranian power, the Trump Administration would be forced to revisit the oft-repeated notion that Iran is a rational actor. President Trump would have to renege on his campaign promise of ending the terrible Obama era Iran deal. He would have to reverse course and effectively reinstitute the Obama deal with Iran, in order to gain new leverage over Tehran. In other words, Trump would have to surrender the Middle East to Iran, selling out Israel in the process, just as Barack Obama did.”

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Holding Turkey Accountable

“Turkey has made its intentions clear: it is not a Western ally. Ankara does not seek to be a Western partner. If the West continues treating Turkey as though it were simply a wayward child rather than a rival, the West will continue to be undermined and embarrassed from within.”

The Turkish-Russian-Chinese-Iranian Condominium

“Face it, the EU is disintegrating and NATO no longer has the kind of cachet or relevance it once had. It is time for a new security paradigm on the continent, one that is led by the Europeans and conducted at the sub-regional level.

The West blew it with Turkey and now Turkey is going to make the West pay–at a time when the West can ill-afford such burdensome costs. “

Erdogan’s New Empire – Lecture

In my recent lecture for the Koscuzsko Chair Intermarium Series at the Institute of World Politics, I talk about Turkey’s future under President Recep Erdogan and its implications for American foreign policy and the Middle East.

The Great Pipeline War: Syrian Settlement Forthcoming

Underlying the Syrian Civil War has been a competition to build a billion-dollar pipeline through Syria to Europe. Russia has ensured that the Iranian pipeline will win out, thereby harming U.S. interests and empowering Russia’s influence not only in Syria, but more importantly, in Europe, which is overwhelmingly dependent on Russia for its energy needs.