In 2013, the Turks, a NATO partner, wanted access to U.S. Patriot missile defenses to protect against any spillover from the Syrian Civil War. The Obama Administration refused. Since that point, U.S.-Turkish relations have collapsed and NATO has quietly broken because of this. The recent Turkish invasion of Syria merely highlights this fact.
The Syrian Kurds worked with the US against ISIS. That alliance ended the moment the fight against ISIS did. As England’s Lord Palmerston said, “Nations have no permanent friends or allies; they only have permanent interests.”
Turkey’s return to a small strip of northern Syria is not historically new. And Turkey’s presence just might complicate Iranian ambitions for expanding beyond their territory into the Levant.
The elite in America and Europe are whinging about Trump’s July Fourth parade in Washington, D.C. They don’t understand: they are not the intended audience. Ordinary Americans who are generally pro-military and America’s autocratic enemies, who believe America is weak, are the intended audience.
“If Iran is the threat that many in the Trump Administration believe it to be, and if American military power is no longer as effective in the region as everyone previously thought, then why not step back, reserve the right to attack any foe that may arise in Syria at a later date, and seek to make nice with the weaker members of this new Russo-Iranian-Turkish alliance?”
“”With the loss of Saudi Arabia as a viable partner in blocking the spread of Iranian power, the Trump Administration would be forced to revisit the oft-repeated notion that Iran is a rational actor. President Trump would have to renege on his campaign promise of ending the terrible Obama era Iran deal. He would have to reverse course and effectively reinstitute the Obama deal with Iran, in order to gain new leverage over Tehran. In other words, Trump would have to surrender the Middle East to Iran, selling out Israel in the process, just as Barack Obama did.”
“Turkey has made its intentions clear: it is not a Western ally. Ankara does not seek to be a Western partner. If the West continues treating Turkey as though it were simply a wayward child rather than a rival, the West will continue to be undermined and embarrassed from within.”
“Turkey isn’t an ally; it’s a strategic competitor. President Trump has praised Erdogan as “a friend.” But the administration would do well to acknowledge reality before America’s strategic position is hopelessly undermined in Europe and the Middle East.”
“Face it, the EU is disintegrating and NATO no longer has the kind of cachet or relevance it once had. It is time for a new security paradigm on the continent, one that is led by the Europeans and conducted at the sub-regional level.
The West blew it with Turkey and now Turkey is going to make the West pay–at a time when the West can ill-afford such burdensome costs. “
“The prospect of a future coup remains unlikely for as long as Erdogan remains in office. Barring a democratic loss in 2019, it would be reasonable to say that Erdogan has become a de facto Sultan who survived an onslaught of his former Janissaries.”