The Kurd In the Punch Bowl

“I have firm faith that the Kurds will one day get their independence. The day for that is not now. The best solution for the benighted Kurds would be to hunker down in their enclaves and lie in wait until their host nations – particularly those in Syria, Iran, and Turkey – become weak and unable to prevent the call for Kurdish independence. President Trump has made the right decision to acquiesce to the brutal autocrats in Turkey on the matter of the Kurds, if only because the United States needs autocratic Turkey to balance against Russia, China, and Iran more than it needs the Kurds at present.”

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The Multipolar World: Partnering with Russia to Stop Iran

“While it might harm Washington’s ego to treat Moscow as an equal partner in world affairs, the only way to mollify the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program – without a major war against Iran (and absent another silver bullet to use on Iran, like the Stuxnet cyber-attack) – is to grant Russia the respect Putin believes he and his country deserve. Thanks to the restrictive sanctions regime that President Trump has imposed on Russia, the United States has leverage. By dangling the prospect of a grand bargain between Moscow and Washington over key disagreements, the United States would likely be able to get Russia to work with it on ending the threat posed by Iran.”

Turkey Benefits from the Khashoggi Disappearance

“Western media outlets must be suspicious of any information coming from Turkey about the Khashoggi disappearance. After all, Turkey (as well as Russia, Iran, and China) benefits from the sustained media campaign against Saudi Arabia (since it disconnects Riyadh from Washington). It also weakens the United States in the region.”

Losing Latin America

“Washington cannot abandon Latin America.  After all, the problems that afflict Latin America will inevitably ripple upward to the United States, causing grave political and economic dislocations.  They already are.  Imagine what happens if the United States retreats completely from the region and cedes its influence to rivals like China, Russia, and Iran – or Cuba, for that matter.”

The Germans Will Never Learn

“Let Maas’s new world order of multipolarity and balance ring out.  It’d save America much money and many lives, being able to hand off some responsibilities to capable allies.  Unfortunately, though, the Germans are kidding themselves if they believe they’ll be able to achieve this in Europe – not without a great power backing their play (and that great power is notFrance).  They will be forced to choose between the United States and Russia.  I suspect that Berlin will ultimately end up in the United States’ camp.”

China’s Marathon to Take Over America

“For the first time in decades, the United States is competing against a rival whom, in many respects, it has fallen behind.  First, American leaders must fully acknowledge the threat.  Then the U.S. must move to do what the Spanish failed to do to the rising United States: challenge it early enough to head off any real threat.”

Trump’s Grand Plan for Russia

“Continuing to obsess over Europe, or further enmeshing the ailing Russian Federation into the tribal politics of the Middle East, is not in Moscow’s long-term strategic interests.

Washington must recognize this reality and create more amicable relations with Moscow.  If it can, then Putin will complete his securitization of Russia’s troubled periphery.  A lasting entente between the United States, Europe, and Russia would help to stabilize Russia’s western periphery.  Together with the United States (and Israel), the Russians could pulverize the remaining terrorist strongholds in the Muslim world that buttresses Russia’s south.  Then Russia could fully focus on complicating Chinese grand strategy by reinvigorating its position in the Far East.”