Once it becomes clear to Kim that the president is not going to acquiesce to North Korean demands the way that former President Obama gave into Iranian demands in 2015, North Korea will have to reassess. If they refuse and persist in their ambition to acquire a nuclear arsenal, Pyongyang will precipitate a conflict the likes of which Kim and his regime will not survive—and regime survival, at this point, is essential for Kim. In fact, it is likely the desire for regime survival that belies North Korea’s continued quest for nuclear arms. He needs to be made to see that this is not the way to achieve that goal.
“Once U.S. forces are gone, only the region’s local actors will be left. And, nothing kills a toxic relationship—such as the one between China and North Korea—like proximity. For once, the United States might end up taking the role of a neutral mediator in any future conflict in northeast Asia. That is much to be preferred over being at the front of a potential nuclear conflict on the Korean peninsula.”
“Whatever evil the Kim regime has committed, it wants to be accepted as it is by the international community. Trump meeting Kim face-to-face in Singapore, and giving him the grace (yes, that is the right word) of being seen as an equal just might pull him back from totally embracing the manic side of North Korean ideology.”
“Whether it’s in 18 months or four years from now, the North is going to strike the South–and it won’t be a pinprick strike either. Kim Jong-un wants South Korea. It is a fundamental component of his regime’s existence. It cannot be removed from young Kim’s psyche until he settles the issue on his own. The course is set. There will be little deviation. Since, my initial hopes for a Manhattan-like Project that would deploy space-based missile defenses into orbit does not seem to be at hand, the Trump Administration must decide whether it can live in a world where the kooky Kim regime can permanently threaten the United States with nuclear retaliation or attack.”
“The Kim regime’s entire existence is wedded to the idea that only that family can remake Korea whole and protect it from the outside world. Deals with the West buy North Korea time, and are wholly one-sided. Inevitably (and sooner than anyone thinks), the North will strike out with nuclear weapons, and we are entirely unprepared for that day.”
The Trump Administration will make a deal with North Korea. But, this deal will not last more than 18 months because Kim Jong-un IS unstable.
Kim Jong-un has murdered his half-brother, who was protected by the Chinese. I explain why he took that action and how it could impact stability in the northern Pacific.